russian military losses

Russian Military Losses - The conflict in Ukraine has shifted to the eastern part of the country, where Ukrainian forces are battle hardened and well prepared.

Analysts believe that Ukraine's best units are in the east, dug into trench systems and other fortified positions.

Russian Military Losses

So far, Ukrainian forces have strongly resisted the Russian advance, but in some areas Russian forces may be heavily outnumbered.

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Russian officials have said that their forces are now focused on the "complete liberation" of Donbass, referring generally to Ukraine's eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.

With less forest land in their path than in the north of the country, Russian troops can advance with fewer obstacles.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the battle for Slovyansk is likely to be the next pivotal battle of the war.

If Russian forces advancing from Izyum manage to capture the city, they can push east towards Severodonetsk to surround a relatively small group of Ukrainian forces, or move further south to surround a larger Ukrainian contingent.

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If Mariupol falls to the Russians, there may be more troops to push north into the area west of Donetsk.

Brigadier Ben Barry (retired) of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Ukrainian forces have had years to prepare their defenses and Russian forces may find it difficult to dislodge them.

"It's not just World War I-style trenches on the Ukrainian side, but they have fortified key cities that they want to protect," he says.

Many Ukrainian forces in the east are very experienced: they have held back Russian separatists since the 2014 conflict.

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Their number may also increase if Ukraine's warlords redeploy units no longer needed to defend Kiev after Russia's withdrawal from the north.

Brigadier General Barry says Russia is likely to use heavy artillery to crush the strong Ukrainian defenses from the air before advancing on land.

Attacking Ukrainian forces led by infantry, without first applying heavy artillery fire, risks massive Russian losses and greatly increases the risk of defeat.

Russia has a variety of weapons to use. In particular, self-propelled artillery, which Russia dominates, is "a very important factor", says Brigadier Barry.

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Self-propelled artillery has the appearance of a tank, but shoots ammunition upwards and then falls on the target, instead of firing directly at it.

It is more heavily protected than a towed weapon and can advance quickly if enemy defenses collapse.

To hit Ukrainian positions from afar, Russia has sorted out several missile launchers and is likely to use them extensively.

The graduates have 40 missiles that can be launched in just 20 seconds and have already caused a catastrophic civilian death toll in some areas, reducing residential areas in Kharkiv, Mariupol and other cities to rubble.

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Russian forces have also reportedly used thermobaric weapons in parts of Ukraine, including Mariupol in Donetsk and Izjum in Kharkiv.

They are far more devastating than conventional explosives of a similar size, dispersing the fuel mixture in the form of a cloud that then detonates, creating a massive fireball and blast wave.

Samuel Cranny-Evans of the Royal United Services Institute says they are "primarily intended for urban warfare" because the fuel mixture cloud that disperses after the initial impact can penetrate buildings before exploding.

If Russian artillery succeeds in destroying Ukraine's basic defenses, Russia will likely use small arms infantry and a variety of wheeled and tracked vehicles, along with heavy tanks, to control the fire-swept land in Ukraine.

A Tactical Disaster For Russia's Military

Analysts say it's unclear whether Russian forces have dealt with the serious logistical problems that arose in the first weeks of this campaign.

"Training, motivation and leadership are also key. The Russians didn't do well in Kyiv and we just don't know if they've learned their lessons," says Brigadier Barry.

Reports also suggest that Russia has lost more than three times as much military equipment as Ukraine so far in the war.

It is not clear how this might affect the war in the East, but replacing lost equipment could present serious challenges.

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Oryx, an open-source military analysis website, tracks military equipment losses and only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment for which photographic or video evidence exists.

Russia is estimated to have lost over 400 tanks, 20 aircraft and 32 helicopters, as well as hundreds of armored vehicles and other equipment.

Michael Kofman of the US-based Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) says: "It will be a while before this kit is operational, manned and fielded where it makes a tangible difference. Some tanks are captured or IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles] don't make an armored brigade. "

In the long term, Russia may also have a crucial advantage, especially if Western supplies to Ukraine remain limited to defense equipment.

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Cranny-Evans says: "For every rocket launcher or howitzer that is destroyed in Ukraine, in most cases there are no replacements, they are gone. But Russia still has the production capacity, so for the Russian forces these things are not irreplaceable. As the war progresses, the times will begin to change in Russia's favor. "Russia has one of the largest and most powerful militaries in the world, but this was not evident in the initial invasion of Ukraine. Many Western military analysts have been surprised by its progress on the battlefield so far, with one describing it as "nervous".

Its military gains appear to have largely stalled, and some now question whether it can recover from the losses it has suffered. This week, a senior NATO military official told The Washington Post that "the Russians clearly haven't achieved their goals and probably won't at the end of the day." so what went wrong? I have spoken to senior Western military and intelligence officials about the mistakes made by Russia.

Russia's first mistake was underestimating the strength of the resistance and the capabilities of Ukraine's own smaller armed forces. Russia's annual defense budget is over $60 billion, while Ukraine's spending is just over $4 billion.

At the same time, Russia and many others seem to have overestimated their military capabilities. President Putin had embarked on an ambitious modernization program for his military, and he too could believe his own exaggerations.

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A senior British military official said much of Russia's investment had been spent on its massive nuclear arsenal and experiments involving the development of new weapons such as hypersonic missiles. Russia has reportedly built the world's most advanced tank - the T-14 Armata. But while it has been seen in the Victory Day parade in Moscow's Red Square, it has been lost in battle. Most of the ones on display by Russia are older T-72 tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and rocket launchers.

At the start of the invasion, Russia had a clear advantage in the air, with fighter jets moving close to the border outnumbering the Ukrainian air force more than three to one. Most military analysts expected the invading force to quickly achieve air superiority, but that did not happen. Ukrainian air defenses remain effective, limiting Russia's ability to maneuver.

Moscow could also expect its special forces to play an important role in helping deliver a quick and decisive strike.

A senior Western intelligence official said Russia thinks it can deploy lighter spearhead units like Spetsnatz and VDV paratroopers "to take out a small number of defenders and that's it." But in the first days, his helicopter attack on the Hostomel airport near Kiev was repulsed, denying airlift of troops, equipment and supplies to Russia.

How Will Russia Attack In East Ukraine?

Instead, Russia has had to transport its supplies mainly by road. This has created traffic jams and bottlenecks that are easy for Ukrainian forces to ambush. Some heavy armor has driven off the road but stuck in the mud, reinforcing the image of a "stuck" army.

At the same time, a long column of Russian armored vehicles from the north captured by satellites has not yet encircled Kiev. The most important advances have come from the south, where he has been able to use the railroads to supply his troops. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said President Putin's forces had "lost momentum".

Russia had amassed around 190,000 troops for this invasion and most of them have already taken part in the battle. But they have already lost about 10% of that strength. There are no reliable figures on the extent of Russian or Ukrainian losses. Ukraine claims to have killed 14,000 Russian soldiers, although the US estimates the number is likely half that.

Western officials also said there was evidence of falling morale among Russian fighters, with one saying it was "very, very low". Another said the soldiers were "cold, tired and hungry" as they waited in the snow for weeks in Belarus and Russia before the invasion order was given.

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Russia is already forced to do so

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