russian military loses

Russian Military Loses - Russia has one of the largest and most powerful armed forces in the world, but this wasn't obvious when it first invaded Ukraine. Many military analysts in the West have been surprised by its battlefield performance, with one describing it as "dismal".

Her military advance appears to have largely stalled, with some now wondering if she can recover from the losses suffered. This week, a senior NATO military official said: "The Russians have clearly not achieved their objective and are unlikely to do so." So what went wrong? I've spoken to senior Western military and intelligence officers about the mistakes Russia has made.

Russian Military Loses

Russia's first mistake was to underestimate the strength of the resistance and the capabilities of Ukraine's own smaller armed forces. Russia has an annual defense budget of more than $60 billion. compared to Ukraine's spending of just over $4 billion.

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At the same time, Russia and many others appear to have overestimated their own armed forces. President Putin had launched an ambitious modernization program for his military, and he may have believed in his own hype.

A senior British military official has said much of Russia's investment has been spent on its vast nuclear arsenal and experimentation, which has included developing new weapons such as hypersonic missiles. It is believed that Russia built the most advanced tank in the world - the T-14 Armata. But while it could be seen at Moscow's Victory Day Parade in Red Square, it was missed in action. Most of what Russia deployed are older T-72 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery and rocket launchers.

Early in the invasion, Russia had a clear advantage in the air, as the fighter jets it operated near the border outnumbered the Ukrainian Air Force by more than three to one. Most military analysts assumed that the invasion force would quickly gain air superiority, but that is not the case. Ukraine's anti-aircraft defenses are still proving effective, limiting Russia's maneuverability.

Moscow may also have assumed that its special forces would play an important role and help deliver a quick, decisive blow.

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A senior Western intelligence official said Russia believed it could use lighter spearhead units like Spetsnatz and VDV paratroopers "to eliminate a small number of defenders and that would be it". But in the first few days, their helicopter attacks on Hostomel airport just outside of Kiev were repelled, denying Russia an airlift to bring in troops, equipment and supplies.

Instead, Russia had to transport its supplies mainly by road. This has caused traffic congestion and bottlenecks, which are easy targets for ambush for Ukrainian forces. Some heavy armor has been lost only to get stuck in the mud, reinforcing the image of an army that is "stuck".

Meanwhile, Russia's long tank column from the north, captured by satellites, still hasn't managed to encircle Kyiv. The most important advances came from the south, where it could use railway lines to supply its armed forces. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said President Putin's forces had "lost momentum".

Russia had assembled a force of about 190,000 soldiers for this invasion, most of whom were already committed to combat. But they've already lost about 10% of that strength. There are no reliable figures on the extent of Russian or Ukrainian casualties. Ukraine claims it has killed 14,000 Russian soldiers, although the US estimates it's probably half that number.

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Western officials say there are also signs of plummeting morale among Russian fighters, with one saying it is "very, very, low". Another said the troops were "cold, tired and hungry" after waiting weeks in the snow in Belarus and Russia before being ordered to enter.

Russia has already been forced to seek more troops to make up for its losses, including sending in reserve units from the east of the country and Armenia. Western officials also say it is "very likely" that foreign troops from Syria will soon join the fight, along with mercenaries from the clandestine Wagner group. A senior NATO military official said it was a sign it was "scratching the bottom of the barrel".

Russia struggled with the fundamentals. There's an old military adage that amateurs talk tactics while professionals study logistics. There are indications that Russia has not sufficiently taken this into account. Tank columns have run out of fuel, food and ammunition. Vehicles were left abandoned and then towed by Ukrainian tractors.

Western officials also believe Russia is short of ammunition. It has already fired between 850 and 900 long-range precision munitions, including cruise missiles, which are more difficult to replace than unguided weapons. US officials have warned that Russia has turned to China to help fix some of its shortcomings.

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In contrast, a steady stream of Western-supplied arms entered Ukraine, boosting her morale. The United States just announced that it will provide an additional $800 million in defense assistance. In addition to several anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, it's also expected to include the Switchblade, a small US-developed "kamikaze" drone that can be carried in a backpack before being launched to deliver a small explosive to a target. on earth.

Western officials still warn that President Putin could "double down with greater brutality." They say he still has enough firepower to bombard Ukrainian cities for a "significant amount of time".

Despite the setbacks, an intelligence official said President Putin "is unlikely to be deterred and may instead escalate." He is likely to remain convinced that Russia can defeat Ukraine militarily." And while Ukrainian forces put up fierce resistance, the same official warned that without vital supplies, they too "could potentially run out of ammunition and numbers." The odds may be better than they were when the war started, but they still seem stacked against Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine has shifted to the eastern part of the country, where Ukrainian forces are battle-hardened and well-prepared.

Analysts believe Ukraine's best units are in the east, dug into trench systems and other fortified positions.

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So far, Ukrainian troops have strongly resisted the Russian advance, but they may be severely outnumbered in some areas by the advancing Russian forces.

Russian officials said the focus of their forces is now on the "complete liberation" of Donbass, broadly referring to Ukraine's eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.

With less forested land in the way than in the north of the country, Russian troops may be able to advance with fewer obstacles.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Battle of Sloviansk is likely to be the next decisive battle of the war.

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If Russian troops advancing from Izyum are able to capture the city, they may choose to move east toward Severodonetsk to encircle a relatively small group of Ukrainian forces, or further south to encircle a larger Ukrainian contingent.

If Mariupol falls to the Russians, there may also be more troops available to push north into territory west of Donetsk.

Brigadier General Ben Barry (retired) of the International Institute for Strategic Studies says Ukrainian forces have had years to prepare their defenses and Russian troops may have trouble driving them off.

"It's not just WWI-style trenches on the Ukrainian side, they want to have fortified important towns and villages that they want to defend," he says.

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Many Ukrainian troops in the east are very experienced - they have been holding back Russian separatists since the 2014 conflict.

Their number could also be increased if Ukraine's military commanders did not have to move more units to defend Kiev after Russia's withdrawal from the north.

Brigadier General Barry says Russia will likely use heavy artillery to break through strong Ukrainian defenses from the air before advancing on the ground.

A frontal attack on Ukrainian troops with infantry without prior heavy artillery bombardment risks huge Russian casualties and greatly increases the risk of defeat.

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Russia has a range of weapons at its disposal. In particular, self-propelled artillery, where Russia dominates, "will be a very significant factor," says Brigadier General Barry.

Self-propelled artillery looks like a tank, but fires ammunition upwards and then falls on a target instead of firing directly at it.

It is better protected than a rifled gun and can advance quickly when enemy defenses collapse.

To attack Ukrainian positions from a longer range, Russia has upgraded several missile launch systems and is likely to use them extensively.

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The Grads have 40 rockets that can be fired in just 20 seconds and have already taken a disastrous toll on civilians in some areas, reducing residential areas in Kharkiv, Mariupol and other cities to rubble.

Thermobaric weapons have also reportedly been used by Russian forces in parts of Ukraine, including Mariupol in Donetsk and Izyum in Kharkiv.

They are much more destructive than conventional explosives of a similar size,